Dmitri's Predictions (Apr. 30)

1. Gennady Zyuganov
2. Vladimir Zhirinovsky

1. Gennady Zyuganov
2. Vladimir Zhirinovsky

1. Institute of the Sociology of Parliamentarism (head: Nugzar Betaneli) claims having polled 6000 people on Apr. 10-15 and puts Zyuganov's first round vote at 38-47%. Other sources estimate this rating at 19-27%.
2. Apr. 10 VCIOM runoff forecast for the pair Zyuganov-Yavlinsky is, Yavlinsky 31%, Zyuganov 27%. Similar poll by ROMIR published on Apr. 14 predicted that Yavlinsky, with 28%, would lose to Zyuganov's 39%.
3. In December, VCIOM predicted that the KRO of Lebed and Skokov would pick up 13.1% of the vote, ahead of Zhirinovsky's LDPR (11.5%). Nezavisimaya Gazeta also put the KRO ahead, with 6.5% against the LDPR's 5.7%. In fact, Zhirinovsky's party finished second in the party list vote with 11.18%, the KRO was seventh (!) with 4.31%.

Because of the pro-Yeltsin mass media campaign, a few respondents may "play it safe" with the pollsters, falsely saying they'd vote Yeltsin. In fact, they'll vote Zhirinovsky or Yavlinsky. Even worse, some polling organizations might have slanted the results in favor of Yeltsin, hoping to influence the mood of the public and thus help Yeltsin. Under Communists, public opinion research will die pretty quickly. Why not overblow Yavlinsky's rating instead? My answer is, Yavlinsky's campaign is cheaper, Yeltsin has more power and sponsors.

I trust the MSU Center of Social Research study (Dec. 95) that put opposition to the right of private citizens to buy and sell land at 41.3% and the early April VCIOM poll that showed the percentage of respondents who thought the old Soviet political system was best for Russia at 41%. In the latter poll, state planning was favored over the market economy by 42% of respondents. This is Zyuganov's second round vote against Yavlinsky or Yeltsin. There would be fewer votes against all if Yavlinsky could make it to the second round, though. Compare the negative ratings of Yeltsin and Yavlinsky. Direct poll results suggest the same.

I expect that Zhirinovsky will pick up some of the "pro-Soviet" votes in the first and the second round, but Zyuganov will get extra runoff votes from those scared of Zhirinovsky.

As of May 6, I had a feeling that the recent 180-degree change in the views of Lebed on the military reform would lead to his settlement for a Defence Minister portfolio in the potential Yavlinsky gov't. Most of the nationalist Lebed sympathizers would switch to Zhirinovsky. Lebed seemingly changes his views on the "third force" deal prospective ever so often, but I still predict that most of his December votes will go to Zhirinovsky (this correction is made on May 9 because of yet another Lebed's mood swing: no matter what he's gonna do now, he'll "fall through the cracks").

I can think of a few things that might harm Yeltsin's chances.

1. Yeltsin's recent populist moves, along with business fears of the Communist revenge, will cause a major price hike.
2. The shameless pro-Yeltsin campaign in the pro-gov't media will backfire. We saw that happen to Ryzhkov in 1991. The media failed to scare the public with capitalism, it won't scare it with communism.
3. Yeltsin's health may let him down again.
4. "The Third Force" of Yavlinsky, Lebed, and Fedorov will steal a bundle of votes from the incumbent (but not enough to beat Zhirinovsky). Indeed, why would anyone vote for old, sick, and oafish Yeltsin, and not for younger and brighter Yavlinsky? There are answers to that, but I don't find them especially convincing. Indeed, when the pro-gov't media pawns are saying that Yeltsin is the only real alternative to the Communists and that Yavlinsky has no chance of making the second round, they don't even believe it themselves, so does anyone REALLY believe them? And if one supports the Chechen war (Yavlinsky doesn't, Yeltsin started it in the first place), why not vote Zyuganov or Zhirinovsky? Anyhow, the popularity of the Chechen war is questionable, or Yeltsin wouldn't come up with the publicity stunt he called his "peace plan".

The final argument: Zhirinovsky has beaten the ratings twice (in 1993 and 1995), he is going to do it again.